Andy Burnham – ten year plans and all – is a man on a mission. A blitz of policy annoucements by the new PM this week is no doubt designed to capitalise on what he hopes will be an extended honeymoon period. Two recent polls already have Labour tied with Reform. Should this situation persist over the summer – moreover should Labour start to lead Reform – then an early election may prove irresistable for Burnham.

He will never curry so much favour as he will right now. The small boats crisis will continue and the economy will likely stagnate (apart from events, dear boy, events, who thinks ‘Number 10 North’ is going to change our lives?). Bus fare token gestures won’t meaningfully help with our cost of living. You’d need to scrap net zero and radically reform planning laws for starters. Council house building plans aside, there is little sign of that.

Soon voters will see how gimmicky ‘Manchesterism’ really is given ‘power in every postcode’ will never extend to a choice on where to house illegal immigrants.

Hence why an early election could be prove alluring for the new Labour leader. Better to move fast than wait until the window of opportunity slams shut!

Yes, inevitably, many Labour MPs will lose their seats. But even with a narrow lead, Labour could still eke out a win, especially given tactical voting and how votes are distributed nationwide.

Burnham would get out from under the mill stone of ‘Starmer’s mandate’ and secure his own. Let’s be frank – if Labour was reasonably ahead in the polls right now we would have a summer election. It may not therefore take much to change the new PM’s mind.

Reform must then be prepared. Nigel Farage‘s party is strongest on immigration, law and order, and the economy. They need to hammer Labour’s record on these as well as a Tory party responsible for much of our current mess. Tory misrule was only two years ago, remember.

This will be something of a ‘ming vase’ strategy. Not to say Reform shouldn’t be bold and radical. But Farage knows the Establishment will do anything to stop him. Any mistake – real or imagined – will be pounced upon.

Reform can afford no missteps or public bickering in the ranks. The public wants to hear about those issues where Reform is strongest, especially border control.

Burnham has played his hand well and the man may believe he’s on a roll. His lucky streak could continue with a prolonged poll bounce which may convince the PM to go to the people early.

Reform must resolutely stay on message and step carefully. The party’s moment of truth may be nearer than many thought possible.